http://www.bigbearweather.com/
It does not look like you will be needing chains, but there will be ice on the road. Take 38. 330/18 is 10-15 minutes shorter (assuming no traffic), but 38 is easier on the driver. And if the traffic sucks (and it most likely will) 330/18 can easily add 1h+.
I go several times/year. I usually leave before 6am and I don’t think I ever managed to get there in two hours or less (even with no traffic).
If your plan is to hit the slopes you will want to be there when the resorts open.
