Historically (since 1972) the DJIA has been up 1 week after Election Day 4 times: ’72, (4 more of Nixon) ’80, (Yay Reagan-no more Carter) ’96, (4 more Clinton!) and ’04 (4 more Bush!).
The data seems to indicate that the market really doesn’t behave in a predictable manner after elections.
DJIA
2008 39756
Day before 9319.83
Election date: 9625.28 3.28%
Day after
Week after
2004
Day before 10054.39
Election date: 10035.73 -0.19%
Day after 10137.05 1.01%
Week after 10386.37 3.49%
2000
Day before 10977.21
Election date: 10952.18 -0.23%
Day after 10907.06 -0.41%
Week after 10681.06 -2.48%
1996
Day before 6041.68
Election date: 6081.18 0.65%
Day after 6177.71 1.59%
Week after 6266.04 3.04%
1992
Day before 3262.21
Election date: 3252.48 -0.30%
Day after 3223.04 -0.91%
Week after 3225.47 -0.83%
1988
Day before 2124.64
Election date: 2127.49 0.13%
Day after 2118.24 -0.43%
Week after 2077.173 -2.37%
1984
Day before 1229.24
Election date: 1244.15 1.21%
Day after 1233.22 -0.88%
Week after 1206.6 -3.02%
1980
Day before 937.2
Election date: HOLIDAY
Day after 953.16 1.70%
Week after 944.03 0.72%
1976
Day before 966.09
Election date: HOLIDAY
Day after 956.53 -0.99%
Week after 930.77 -3.79%
1972
Day before 984.8
Election date: HOLIDAY
Day after 983.74 -0.11%
Week after 1003.16 1.83%
