I am not sure where to start. First off as you know everyone and EVERYTHING on this board is speculative. With that said, my friend Powayseller who is one of the more bearish posters, always backs her speculation up with really good arguments. Again though, all of our postings are simply speculations so don’t get to bummed out by them okay?
I am a Realtor and I would say that if you are happy where you live, and you like the schools, and you are not in an arm loan then I think you will do just fine. Some of use like Escondido and some of us don’t but don’t sweat it if people badmouth it compared to Del Mar or La Jolla.
My personal opinion, and it is VERY SPECULATIVE, is that the market will depreciate over the next 2 years at least. That depreciation rate will vary on a few things, first and foremost being a recession that can be as light as a simple slowdown or decelleration of the economy or a heavier one due to loss of lost of jobs. I think it will be middle of the road, many others think it will be heavier. Anyways I believe the current pricing has already depreciate by at least 5-10% in Escondido and will continue. I personally think you can get a better deal if you wait a year or two.
With that said, buying now, if it makes you happy is okay. I think that in 5 years you “could” see that 10-15% appreciation you are seeking. However, what makes me uncomfortable is that you “could” just as well be underwater at that time.
Yes San Diego is the best place on Earth (IMO) yet it is the 6th least affordable place to buy a home. Also note you are buying a home at a time where we have more inventory then we have had in years. This point is not speculative, it is fact. You are also buying at a time when prices are depreciating, market times are lengthening, and cancelled and expirations are increasing. This is not speculative either. Finally NODs and Foreclosures are also increasing. This is not speculative.
So with that said, I think again, you would be better served financially to buy when these indicators start to level out.
If you have not past your contingency period you can exit without loss of deposit.
However, if you are gonna be there several years, you will be okay in the long run. Hang in there and if you need any advice, please don’t be afraid to post.
