Okay I can say with 100% honesty that I know scripps very well as I live there. Triana (the subdivision you have posted about) has seen definite price reductions but it will continue to depreciate. I understand your point about the fact that with what you have to put down and what you would pay to rent for, that for this price you would be close to a break even point of buy verses rent. However I would ask you to consider the counterpoint of holding off. If you continue to accumulate more cash in your savings, even if it is interest accrued, and prices drop say another 7%, then the balance becomes even greater for you.
Now lets take a look at Triana in more detail. For the floorplan you have selected, I see a sale of 490k, 492k and 492.5k back in 2005. I also see that the last sale of a condo of this floorplan on Spruce Run was 11885 Spruce Run for 449k back in May.
Now I wonder how those homeowners who spent 450k in May feel now that they see a home that is listed for 60k less just 6 months removed! That is over 10% in 6 months. Now I will say those homeowners were kind of boneheaded because the realtor they had most likely did not show them that there was another sale at 11809 Spruce Run in January of 07 for 415k. That is life I guess when you do not work with a good realtor.
Okay finally let’s look at this property itself. It is competing against 2 others on Spruce Run of the same flooplan. HOA in Triana are 120 and tack on another 73 for Mello Roos. Previous seller paid 478 back in 04. Wamu took it for 423 in June of 07. It just hit the market a few days ago and yes, compared to the competition is priced aggressively. Will it sell at that price? More then likely it will. I guess we will see. You could try to throw a lowball at it just for kicks.
My point here is to just give you the facts.
Now on the speculative side I think there is a high probability of more foreclosures in this complex and that prices will continue to drop in there. By how much and how fast? I am not sure.
Sorry if I am not giving you a definitive answer. I just want to give you more information. Personally I would try to hold out and wait if you can. Even if it is just for another year. Think of it like this… The probability of prices being lower next year are very high. The probability of prices being higher next year are very low.
