“Here’s my theory on primo areas and distressed areas, the percentage will be exact, the timing will not. If desirable areas of the county would have suffered lower percentage losses in the last 4 or 5 bust/boom cycles, then the disparity would increase with each cycle, but it has not. Don’t ridicule the “things will be different this time” theory and then subscribe to it with regards to carmel valley or some other desirable area. The NOD/NOT analysis is just an indicator of when it will hit the fan. If 4-S falls 50% from peak, within a year, the areas without high NODS/NOTS will fall the same percentage.”
Sounds like you got it Temecula Guy.
I think the declines in prices, percentage wise will be similiar. A few more “desirable” areas are really going to surprise to the downside and a few less “desirable” areas are going to show surprising resiliency. Frankly I think it is a waste of time to speculate on this topic. What you and Bugs are saying seems to handle it.
