Here’s more data predicting a recession. Since 1971, the year over year change in retail employment was negative 5 times, each time in a recession. This is the 6th time it is negative.
See calculated risk chart. He writes “Of course, the spin doctors are sure to dismiss the negative growth in retail employment. Sure, every time it’s happened since 1945 it’s presaged a recession. But it’s bound to be different this time. Of course.”
I was at Fashion Valley, and could barely find a parking space. I circled a long time, and then had to wait for someone to pull out. Oh, retailers at Fashion Valley are defying the downturn, I thought. But, wait… One of my first stops was the Food Court, to get a bite to eat. The kids were off shopping, so I was alone and looked around. During my 20 minute lunch, I observed at least 1000 people. 90% of them had NO shopping bags, but were just walking around, sometimes with a drink in hand. Of the people with bags, 99% had Nordstrom Half Yearly sale bags.
At Neiman Marcus, it was sheer desperation. My daughter gets her makeup there, and I’ve been there often. Today, there were THREE salespeople barraging people who commonly walk through the store, begging them to stop for 2 seconds to try the eyeliner, or get a perfume sample. It was really annoying. Each customer was barraged by all THREE of these people, who were lined up in the corridor that is used by people walking through the store. It was obvious they were desperate. FYI – Lilly Pulitzer is having 75% off most of their summer merchandise; ladies, go get some great bargains! Overall, the Apple store, Nordstrom, and probably Victoria’s Secret and Borders and the Food Court were busy; the rest was empty.
I keep noticing Help Wanted signs in the WINDOWS of the stores. It used to be in the Classifieds, but desperation has forced it to the windows. Since last night, I saw Help Wanted signs at Starbucks in Del Mar, and the Cleaners and Round Robin Pizza and Henry’s in Poway.
Does anyone else have any retail downturn stories, and Help Wanted desperation (which proves people are moving out of San Diego and employers cannot find help).
