Here are the indicators I look at (with a handy +/-/o scale)
Local data:
0 Local jobs: Yoy flat to down slightly.
– Inventory: Yoy up.
– Delinquencies: Off the chart historic highs.
& NODs & Foreclosures: Remain high
0 Local sales: Yoy flat
+ Local prices: YOY up.
+ Interest rates: historic lows
national data (of debatable importance to local markets)
– National house prices: Yoy down.
– National Mortgage applications: Down. Sharply.
Not all of these factors are equal. Its a mixed bag, but I see more risk of further housing depreciation than appreciation over the next year or so.
