I think the really brutal MR is in Del Sur. 4S has high MR, especially north 4S, but it seems mostly less than 1% of purchase price/year.
The thing that really got me was looking at RealtyTrac. The whole of 4S was clusters of the big red dots signifying some stage of the foreclosure process. There look to be about three or four times as many homes in foreclosure as there are listed in the MLS, once you go above 2,000 sqft. And this is for both north 4S and south 4S. Most of these show auction dates from Dec 2011 to Feb 2012. Lord knows when these will hit the MLS.
Actually, considering how over-priced these homes were when they were first built and sold in 2004-2007, I’m almost surprised there aren’t more red dots. Here is my best guess as to why it’s not a total disaster zone:
Lots of homeowners have kids in local schools, and like the schools and the area. Plus they have good jobs, so >$100K for single-income families, maybe $200K for dual-income. That’s enough to continue paying the mortgage if you absolutely refuse to leave and move the kids. Plus there are few good family homes available for rent close by. So even though a lot of these families are probably barely hanging on financially, they are still able to make it by cutting all unnecessary expenses.[/quote]
4S will continue to see distress for quite some time, especially since banks have taken so long to drag this thing out. A lot of folks in 4S are also in “voluntary house arrest.” meaning they are trapped in their overpriced purchases, but they keep up with the payments with the idea that eventually things will turn around. How many will wise up and walk away? there may be a steady trickle of them instead of the really bad areas such as Temecula or Eastlake where things seem so hopeless that walking away is a much easier decision.
But because of the above, this is why it is really important to make sure you get a good price. someone mentioned previously getting a shortsale for $160/sqft 4000 sqft home. That is the type of bargain you have to aim for. At the very least $200/sqft for the smaller homes.
