He was smart 3 years ago. As I said before, (impatience showing?), you cannot predict when irrational exuberance corrects. Excesses go on for much longer than anyone thinks possible. That doesn’t mean the person who saw the excess was wrong.
This reminds me of the alcoholic uncle. You know he’s an alcoholic, everyone does, but he is in denial. He loses his job, his wife, gets a DUI. You keep thinking he hit bottom, and he will quit drinking. But to him, it’s not bad enough. Then one day, something happens, he has a revelation, and comes to his senses. Markets are like that too. Just because he kept drinking after the wife left him doesn’t mean that you were wrong to call him an alcoholic.
