Didn’t take long to find that one. I’m sure there are a few other examples.
We all understand the model. We all understand the historical averages and trends.
We also should understand (we are Piggs, after all) that there are no long-term absolutes.
sdr pointed out that all it takes is a few exceptions and the whole thing breaks down.
Defined benefit plans rely on long-term absolutes. If they actually depended solely upon market returns then they might actually be feasible. But they depend on much more. They depend on managers and bureaucrats not making a single mistake for decades. That’s never going to happen.
Have you heard of the Black Swan? The book sucked, but the concept is undeniably true.[/quote]
You didnt actually find anything that refutes what I said. I said going backwards from 2011.
But obviously there are no absolutes. Which is why i reduced it to a 4% return.
