Hammer – Sorry I didn’t get back to you last night. I have been crazy busy.
I have read each entry in your posting and you have implied more then once that this is the home you could grow old in. It is always interesting reading into the potential buyers who post here. I would suggest there is a large contingent of other potential lurkers who are possible buyers but don’t want to get slammed so they don’t post. Back to the point, it sounds like this home would not be a short term purchase AND that you can afford it. It also sounds like this is a house you really do like. Best of all the location sounds ideal FOR YOU. Maybe others don’t like OB or the Sunset Cliffs commute. It does sound like it works for you though.
Without even doing the comp search this is a strong argument for the purchase.
This area is hard to comp like you said. The location is so unique that looking at the few comps and the history of them may be the best data you can get.
4425 Casitas is active at 1.499 to 1.599. sdr already pointed this out to you. This property has already expired twice at listings of 1.75M and 1.599-1.699 respectively.
849 Sunset Cliffs is at 3.399 to 3.69 for a year now. Prior to that they were at 3.985 and expired. They bought the home in 2003 for 1.7 and they say that is a complete remodel.
Monaco is pending at 950k-1.15 and makes the home you described look like a great deal. Monaco doesn’t have much of a view at all and is a small home.
817 Cornish is interesting. It is in escrow at 1.15-1.25 with previous expirations. It originally listed at 1.399 and sat for 180 days and then expired at 1.15 – 1.25. This home was purchased in 2004 for 1.1 even.
866 Cordova is pending at 1.4-1.549 after 100 days on the market and looks like a very nice home.
There are a couple 2006 sales but on a price per sq foot basis you will get a smoking deal as they are smaller homes.
So this may not be much help but it is the MLS data. I am sure there are other private sales out there.
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There is a high probability the property will decrease in value. Again, if you are okay with that and can afford it then it sounds like it could be the home for you. Do you love the home? Can you afford the home? Will you be able to live in the home for a long period of time? If the answer to these 3 questions is yes then you may be overthinking the decision. Also I feel that these are the types of properties that will appreciate faster once we do bottom out.
Many people work hard for much of their life to achieve things. At some point timing markets and such becomes secondary to lifestyle, again this is not well documented on this site.
Finally ask yourself, how genuine is this opportunity? There is not alot of inventory in this particular subdivision. Will these people perhaps change their mind and not sell in the future? If they did sell and listed it on the MLS could/would someone else but it? I will not argue that you will not get a better deal in the future, however it may not be for this home. This appears to be a pretty good deal on a home in a very unique location.
