Great reading here. A good amount of doom and gloom though. I hope the future isn’t all bad. These things run in cycles and history repeats itself:
* In the late 80’s the total market value of Japan’s RE was double that of US RE. Their stock market value was fully half the world’s value. Much worse than our current bubble. “Japan’s economy would rule the world”.
* For the last 100 years the basis of the US Economy (and other’s) has been a conversion of cheap oil into wealth. The next 100 years?
* Major established currencies run long cycles, just 5 years ago the dollar was “too” strong and ok to let it drop (Greenspan). All else equal a currency getting weaker is a cause for it to get stronger and vice versa.
* The Euro is still a new currency and has looming problems with member counties not meeting reserves and running deficient spending beyond their charter.
* China will need to face a currency adjustment, when and how ugly (for them and us). Probably worse for them.
Ok, I jumped around alot,
Past doom and gloom periods: The Soviet threat, Vietnam, Oil Embargos, Jimmy Carter, S&L/RTC, DotCom, Iraq, RE Bubble, etc. Is now really worse than then, or does it just seem so. The next administration has an opportunity for great change (Republican I hope). Maybe a couple of recessions here and there, but hopefully no depression (or will history repeat the ’30s for us too?).