Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.
“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”
In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.
