Good devils advocate post Ray. I think that most realize trying to time the bottom is a pipe dream. However monitoring the market indicators and waiting until they improve is a way to at least siphon some of the downside risk away. Waiting until foreclosure rates level off, until sales volume stops declining, until things get a bit more stable in the credit markets, stuff like that is something that people can do without a lot of thought or analysis, just patience… Also whether you buy now or buy later, making sure you can afford what you buy, and going in with your eyes open so that you will not lose your home regardless of what the market does is the best plan.
I do agree with your forecast, very few will actually hit the bottom of the market. Personally if I can be within 20% of the bottom, on either side (going up or falling down) that would be acceptable. Not sure if I will be able to wait that long but I am trying.
