Good analysis above flu. I don’t visit much anymore, but have been reading up on this whole FB thing. The problem that a lot of idiots don’t realize is that the price of a stock is meaningless. People think GOOG was overpriced at $85 and FB is cheap at $38. What they don’t understand is that GOOG went public with a market cap (value of the company) at around $25 billion. FB is already over $100 billion at the $38 price. I read posts saying that FB will hit $700/share and just laugh. That would make FB worth 1.8 trillion dollars. There just isn’t as much growth when a company is already valued at 100 billion so your upside is very limited.
Also, there are 400mil+ shares trading now. In a month, it will hit 800 mil. Supply will be plentiful soon enough and the stock will probably collapse. FB does have value and I may buy some, but not at $38 and glad to see it didn’t pop.
It has pretty much no user growth in the US anymore and still hasn’t figured out a way to do ads on mobile at all. Unlike search with GOOG, people are also paranoid with their privacy and people will leave FB if they feel like they are being tracked.
All the insiders are selling for a reason and I feel this IPO will be more like Groupon. Goldman Sachs was planning to dump 25% of their shares and upped it to 50%. A lot of early investors are also dumping which is a very negative sign since obviously, they know the company better than you or me.
Having worked in multiple startups as well in the late 90s-2000s, things that they are doing now like 1 month lockups are so different and short sighted.
