In the original post, I stated that it will be interesting to see what the Piggington Renters’ influence on housing will be. The most helpful reply was that a PR will wait for GRM to go down to a much lower level before they buy.
From the responses so far, it appears that the Piggington Renters’ influence will be minimal, since they will not enter the market until a clear bottom is reached. That makes sense.
At 150 GRM, prices will need to decline to somewhere between 40 to 60 percent below peak levels in 2004 (downtown SD) and 2005 (other desirable SD areas).
For the record, I agree with the Piggington view. The objective of this post was to help me understand better how much more the current market will decline and how fast.
Although RE is different from equities in many respects, I still think there is at least one resistance level that needs to be broken before we see a large breakout to the downside. This resistance level is, in part, due to the ratio between interested buyers and distressed owners. Since Pigginton Renters are in neither group, their influence on the speed and extent of the decline in the near term will be minimal.
My guess changes continuously based on the good input on this and other forums (like Patrick.Net). Even childish replies like JWM’s are taken into account, if only for a laugh.
