Up here in Escondido, I often thought of the number of SFH occupied by retired persons was a risk but as I realize that many of them will live to be 80+ perhaps 90, the day of reckoning seems to be a bit further off than I’d thought a few years ago.
I don’t know how much good data there is on value/income impact of one generation dying off and the transfer of property to a younger one with perhaps lower income and less capability to support the high price as they are “buying in” vs. having ridden the appreciation up over decades.
I guess much depends on the relative numbers and the length of time i.e. a 10% transfer over 10 years wouldn’t have the same impact as a 20% transfer over years. At this juncture, it seems like realtors/investors buyers would just welcome more inventory in general. Would be interesting to know if there is data as to why sellers sell (moving/retiring/death) etc.
If there is significant fluctuation, then perhaps there is a potential inventory overhang at some point but don’t see it in near/mid term.
