Thanks for the nod,:) but I think you explained it better than I did.
Also, to add on to the population stuff on here I have to agree with (was it bugs?) the above post about boomers having to sell to retire. Generatinally there isnt the demand or income supported demand to sustain prices if even a sizable minority of the boomers decided to get out. Remember that the oldest boomers are only 62-63, so this will not take hold for the next few years. Expect to see some pain in 5-7 years as more and more boomers decide to cash in on their main asset for retirment. You can live alot cheaper in the midwest and contrary to the “everyone wants to live here” mentality, the slower pace of life is alot nicer for someone who is in their golden years. Also, Ca population BOOMED in 1960-1980 as boomers moved west. Family ties are strong and they mostly lead back east to siblings and cousins and maybe even parents who never left. My parents are like this. They still get grief to “come back home” 40 years after they left. (Maybe I am just sad about this though and overstating it. A close friend leaves today for Baltamore, just another in a long line of people I know bailing on this state. 🙁 )
I think the one cavat to this is that lending has changed alot in the past decade so things are not what history would tell us (eminant disaster). Products like reverse morgages will allow many more to stay than historical trends would dictate. It may mean that the GenXers or later generations may be among the first to not recieve much of anything in inheritances (cept the wealthest 25%) but it will allow a more gradual withdrawl than some are predicting. Also the baby boomers are the wealthest generation of Americans yet. This will affect the bottom half of the housing stock alot more than it will the more expensive half.
I liked that post about needing alot more 1200sqft houses and alot fewer 3500sqft houses. I have been saying that for a while now. I think that explains alot of the observed activity in MM and Clairmt right now. People need a place to start, and contrary to what the RE industry may want, people wont spend their 20’s in 1/1’s and their 30’s in 2/2 or 3/2 condo’s in BFE.
