FormerSanDiegan…. Just because you look long term (something I haven’t been famous for) doesn’t mean that you just rebalance. Head for them thar hills dude!
I have 0 debt and sold my company about 4 months ago. As of last week I sold off every single stock. I am now 1/3rd California municipal bonds, and 2/3rds in the money market.
I really like the idea of shorting the S&P 500 and investing as a bear. As most people aren’t sophisticated investors I think that shorting the market might be a brilliant move. I agree – it’s not safe. So I might take 25% of my money and buy gold / short the market.
Hey asianautica… be careful about the emerging markets / asian markets. When the consumer stops spending in the US the markets will tumble. I sadly think that the recent jobs report is just the first leg of a steady decline into a vast recession. While it’s hard to time a market, it’s less hard to see the writing on the wall and go against the flow. Soon the flow will be dramatically shifting, with people bailing on their portfolios.
And let me state what we always say on this forum – but in more certain terms…. The housing market will correct BRUTALLY to the downside. It will take years. We haven’t even begun to experience how much air will be let out of this market. In 2005 120K people a month took the real estate exam… this month… 6000. What a difference a couple of years make.
Homes are illiquid. Think of the housing market as a huge supertanker which was gaining speed each month through the 2005’s… It started slowing in 2006 and now they have put the brakes on HARD…. But it’s still a supertanker and it takes a large portion of the market to turn over before the corrections get finalized. Damn I am bad at analogies…. But you can catch my drift!
