For what it’s worth, we are at the time of year when one of the most reliable seasonal patterns in the futures markets normally kicks in. This is the tendency for 30 yr Bond prices to rise, hence lowering rates. Although no seasonal pattern I know of has been right 100% of the time, this is one of the best and most consistently reliable patterns. I am looking to establish a long position there right now, just trying to dial in a pattern that confirms the seasonals. Commercials have been buying this decline as of the last month or so, which is an added bonus on the long side. Furthermore, the valuation of 30 yr bonds in relation to Gold shows them to be extremely undervalued, and sentiment is excessively bearish. This is a very good setup for a rally in this market.
For these reasons I expect to see a rally very soon in 30 Yr Bond prices.
