For a generally positive person, I’m getting very pessimistic and I believe for good reason. One of the most prophetic things that I read was that “Everyone sees a bubble bursting, everyone sees all the signs of it happening, but almost no one does anything about it.”
I have no confidence in how statistics are reported and just how people take numbers like “Prices increased 16%” YoY and then believe that is a number which can be counted on or see a trend happening…. When you look at what sold, and how many properties had to sell, when you see how non-standard this market is, it’s ridiculous to draw conclusions on how the housing market is behaving.
When you have the government putting in stimulus, and historic low rates (but almost all guaranteed by the gov), and seeing the crap which was brutally overpriced and sold over the last couple of years putting pressure on good properties which stayed OFF the market, etc. you see that the housing market defies easy explanation.
Looking on the NAR’s web site recently I was shocked at how their “economists” completely fabricate a belief in the short and medium turn for the economy based on pulling statistics out of a hat and thus showing how home prices are poised to start going higher.
So….. Banks aren’t lending, unemployment is very high, there are a huge number (probably the majority) who did not get raises and many got salary cuts, just met a guy who HP moved from a 70K job fixing servers to a 37K job fixing printers (which of course doesn’t show up in the numbers), or my other friend who works for a major company which cut everyone’s salary 10% and didn’t give any bonuses.
WAKE UP!!! Smell the roses!!! We are at a precipice, but it’s not necessarily a very sharp one, it will shake out over YEARS… not quarters, there will be increases in the markets and even bigger decreases and by the way the market means crap! The DOW means even more crap! These numbers don’t reflect the economy, peoples debt, their loss of equity, their fear of job security, their meekness in not asking for raises, the horrible ponzi like scam of our investment options, government manipulations and bailouts (i’m not against necessarily but ultimately you must pay the piper), and of course mostly the huge tab we have run up as a nation and how every homeowner took on debt and bought toys with very little put away for retirement.
We earn .5% – 3% on our cd’s, bonds, etc. yet the average credit card debt for this month is:
National Average 14.44% 14.42% 13.17%
Business 12.96% 12.96% 10.74%
Low Interest 12.31% 12.18% 12.17%
Cash Back 12.63% 12.63% 12.49%
Balance Transfer 12.97% 12.88% 12.40%
Reward 14.70% 14.70% 13.47%
Instant Approval 15.99% 15.99% 17.62%
Airline 14.30% 14.30% 14.17%
Bad Credit 20.32% 20.32% 13.74%
Student 13.96% 13.96% 14.71%
Banks are no longer reporting correct numbers, they are not required to anymore state the true value of their assets, and the ever present derivatives are sitting there waiting for someone to blink (or go out of business setting of a tsunami of defaults).
Back to the topic – Banks unloaded crap last year, now better properties are coming to the market and buyers who have money and believe that they are getting a deal (and who feel somewhat financially secure) are buying BETTER properties at better prices. This doesn’t mean that prices are going up because you are comparing apples to oranges. Don’t forget the guys who bought properties in 2003-2005 which were terrible properties at high prices (bad locations, over-leveraged, realtors buying and trying to flip) walked away or were foreclosed on and were dropped in price dramatically, while now more normal/good properties are being sold at better than previous pricing.
Watch for prices overall dropping over the next 10 years or so.. Interest rates can stay where they are, because any increase would destroy what is left – so we WILL have deflation in all asset classes especially homes. We are currently showing an incredibly weak economy and nothing on the horizon which will do any more than push it lower and lower. Any news to the contrary is wishful thinking.
One last comment which really scares me… I’ve been polling friends and neighbors, looking at web sites, and reading articles. While the average wall street dude is either selling, shorting, or engaging in quick in and out market manipulation and high speed trading (and NOT A SINGLE ONE isn’t protecting themselves with puts, stop orders, etc.), the average friend, relative, neighbor has their money in the market, in mutual funds, in bonds and should the market respond as I expect it to, they will, LIKE IN EVERY OTHER CRISIS, ride down their financial equity in opposition to every hedge fund, money manager, etc.
When I talk to people who own muni’s ect. I ask them (is it worth getting 2% on your money if you have the danger of losing your equity? But questioning your financial advisor isn’t an option…. Thus the guy who is NEVER right and only mimics the market, is keeping people invested and won’t apologize when people get wiped out…
Sorry for the rant some of this has been building for a while, but I see a bleak horizon for all the reasons we are all seeing yet most of us aren’t really dealing with – I hope it doesn’t come true, but I’m betting that it will…
