Agree very much with what you’ve posted. I was also saying years ago that the public sector would not come out of this unscathed.
While I’d agree that the public sector lags, I do think this time is different in the sense that we might see wave after wave, going back and forth between a weaker private sector/stronger public sector (then inverting again)…all the way down. As a long-term deflationist (who does also see the inflationist’s side), I think this period of time is an inflection point in a macro-cycle (decades-long moves), so things will be very severe and protracted, IMHO.
