[quote=flu][quote=Aecetia]I agree with flu. I think Southern California will come down and San Fransisco will probably go up, unless of course it falls off into the ocean. If that happens there will be many construction jobs for awhile, until the next big problem.[/quote]
My thought behind Bay Area is as follows: unlike in Southern CA (specifically in San Diego)…there is (and forever will be) a shortage of housing in Bay Area..There isn’t as much free open space to build new construction, and unless Bay Area stops being tech hub, which it isn’t in a foreseeable future, it’s always going to have a flow of people and businesses that go through the boom-bust-boom cycle.
When/if the government funded sectors shrink(defense companies/etc), folks are going to start trying to get back into the private sector/tech, and the job market isn’t nearly as bad in bay area as it is elsewhere right now. Imho, you can bet that defense companies are going to go through a cycle similar to the early 80ies, and a lot of these folks are going to be moving into other non-defense tech areas, like in the 80ies.
Bay Area also lures the younger, out of school crowd, because only in Bay Area can you hop around so much and gain a lot of experience…It’s not so flexible for new grads down here in S.D…And you are limiting your career by staying here as a new grad.. L.A. not much of a scene if you are into tech, unless you enjoy being a defense enginerd (which I haven’t met anyone who said they were…but rather they do it out of necessity)..
The VC scene down here in San Diego isn’t quite as active right now down here versu in the north right now either. Nor are VC’s really looking to invest into tech down here right now.
And when I refer to Bay Area, I refer to between
San Francisco and all the way to northern San Jose, with the exception to parts of East Bay and East Palo Alto….not off-locations like Gilroy.
My hole in the dump Santa Clara home has a still pretty good sizeable demand if it were to be sold, and it’s currently renting no where near what it could rent down here…And it’s a dump…But up there, people are use to paying a lot for a dump lol….[/quote]
Great synopsis of Bay Area – I grew up there, Oakland specifically, in fact just spent a week up there. Yes, it is THE place for young techies – wish there was a Santana Row when I was a young bachelor : ) S.D. is not doomed in comparison however- eventually some Northerners tire of the waaay worse traffic, congestion, crime etc and S.D. is like serenity now for folks like us.I haven’t seen stuff like this http://blogs.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/2010/07/oscar_grant_riots_86_arrested.php that crops up in the Bay Area every few years happen yet in S.D. Sure you can avoid Oaktown but San Francisco, Berkeley and a few other cities there have the same powder keg type potential so the “safer” places are limited to suberbia like Cupertino and Pleasanton so you never know who is next to you on the freeway going to where they live if you know what I mean. You need to include the eastern part of I580 in your definition cause Oracle is out there and the parks in Pleasanton and Dublin are filled with Asians and East Indians and their little kids : )
Btw, I think housing prices will be flat in 10% range for a while.(yep, a cop out).
