FLU-I just try to keep my finger on the pulse of rents in this general area. When co-workers talk about rents they are looking for, I lissen. You would be suprised how much can be learned about peoples finances (usually how terrible they are) in the company break room. I have not found a reliable site that gives good numbers (not really looking).
I just think the last downturns are only a basic road map, not a GPS. Savings rates in the 80’s were what,,, 10% of income? Today it is -2%. How does ANYONE save a downpayment with that savings rate? I have a co-worker who still lives at home, but wants to buy a house in MM when the market bottoms. THEY HAVE 0 SAVINGS, none, zip, zilch, nada. They dont pay rent BTW. They just bought a BMW, because “all the credit I have is revolving CC, not structured debt like this, so itll raise my Credit score.” Maybe it will, maybe it wont, but a few hundred a month saved for the next two years would do alot more for you to get into that house than 2 years of payments on a carloan.
This is J6p to me. They have good jobs and high incomes, but no savings, no real plan for the future, and no disapline. They know you could buy for 0 down before, so assume they will too. They see 5-6% interest rates over the past month and assume theyll get that perfect rate. They will always get the Maximum tax deduction and the maximum COLA, plus they are just THIS far from that next big raise they so richly deserve.
They piled on in 2004 because everyone was doing it and everyone was making money. RE never goes down, unlike that stupid tech stocks I bought in 1999. Cant live in a stock! remember all that crap? When they cant buy they wont want to. The go getters will leave the State for greener pastures, the workaholics will save like mad or get a second job and save like mad. The planners (alot of piggs) will be lowballing with howeletzers full of the only thing that will be valuable, CASH, and reaping the rewards of affordable house payments and good lifestyles. Joe6buyer, will be talking about the blood bath his cousin took in RE and how smart he is as a Renter. When he hears of the pigg’s payments, he’ll rush out to get a loan, get rejected in 60 seconds, and start doing the hard work he needed to do 3 years ago. Eventually savings will rise, prices will fall and average joes will buy cause it is time to buy, not because he can or because he wont be able to in a year.
I have no idea of how to track J6P, he doesnt really follow logic or reason, and cant be tracked by ETF’s or algarythems like we want. SHORT J6P, hedge watercooler blather, YOY on sedement is +1.6 so buy buy! Cant do it. Be a people person, go talk to someone you dont normally talk to and see what they think. Hell, I could be totally wrong and we could get this Q3 bottom everyone is talking about, but I still dont know where it is gonna come from. $600 rebate checks, I dont think so!
And TG, if you find some good bars in this area by accident, please help a pigg out. I am always looking for new J6P’s to get a better n, but I am not above getting to know him through his sister, Hottie2D.
