Ex-SD, welcome to Piggington. It’s nice to see new posters here. Your post sounds about right to me. I’m not married to a specified percentage decline, but your post pretty much sums up what direction the market will take.
2009/2010 is the earliest time to buy in my opinion.
I have a friend/acquaintance who moved to LA, bought an expensive house there last year; and because of the housing news, he’s trying to sell his SD house he had previously rented out. He’s asking top price. I’ll be watching his house to see how fast it sells or doesn’t sell. It will be a good gauge of the rate of decline in housing. He bought in 2003 and the house does not cash-flow as a rental. It’d be interesting to see the equity completely evaporate.
Ex-SD, you posted on another thread that homeowners who bought before 1999/2000 will be OK. What level do you think housing will decline to? I’m thinking 2001/2002 nominal prices for SFR, and perhaps 2000 prices for condos.
