Those national polls on who is doing a good job are worthless. Those same 90% are the ones that say the rep for their district is doing a good job. Its the same national polls on the pres elec, its the electoral college not popular vote, otherwise we’d all be driving smart cars under Gore. The press is too stupid or more likely is too broke to conduct 50 state polls to get real data.
intrade (UK futures site banned in this country by the nanny pukes in DC) has McCain at only 31% chance of winning, while the University of Iowa elections market (open to US with limit of $500) has McCain at 35%.
You can clean up at the IOWA site, the odds are SO WRONG; once we get in there the odd in Oct will go 50-50. Sure thing John, easy 500.
I just trying to make the point that people talk about how poorly Bush does in the poll while ignoring that 4 times more people think Bush is doing is a good job vs those that think Congress is doing a good job.
I have a friend who traded political futures based in London. I am not sure if they are more then one future to trade or not or if he traded the one that you have linked. At one time the futures he traded had Hillary with a lock on the nomination with Obama round 2%.
I agree with the odds being off. Buying McCain at 31% would be a gift.
