Let’s sum it up, the winner will get 269-280, very tight. Let take 2004 results and flip NM and IA. That gives 269 tie. Let give CO to Obama. +9 for dems. Throw in NV(5), dems +14. However, McCain can easily win all with PA(21) to get 276. [Ohio and PA are similar, but not the same] If Obama loses PA, it will not be because of Hillary. She has made so many speeches on his behalf. If her supporters dont vote for Obama, it will be mostly the Bradley effect and fact that Biden didn’t really bring over any voters.
If NV stays red and PA turns red, but IA+NM+VA+CO goes blue then 270-268 for Obama. 50-80,000 people at Obama rally in VA tonight is scary, but most are going to see the Boss? Isn’t Springsteen going to most of Obama’s rallies?
So, only five states in play: NM, NV, VA, CO, PA.
Obama is the underdog, even though he will likely win popular vote by millions. If he loses PA+VA and thus the EV, then there could be massive disullusionment in this country that has not been seen since the 70’s and would cause minorities to stop voting forever. I’m sure many will celebrate that outcome.
BTW: Don’t blacks vote 90% for dems most elections because they are looking for social programs? How is voting for dem this time suddenly racist on their part? If Obama were Rep and blacks were voting for him 90%, then you could say they were racist. [/quote]
I agree with a lot of your math, Equalizer.
Here’s where I disagree:
I think McCain will surprise the pundits and take NV because early voting has NOT been good for Obama. The early voting turnout was overwhelmingly Democrat, but Obama’s lead is small. There must have been a good number of defectors. The GOP base has yet to weigh in, and that will make the difference, I believe.
If McCain wins NV and PA but loses IA+NM+VA+CO, he wins 273 EV to 265. That’s what the RealClear map is telling me.
[And yes, Obama tends to bring big-name talent to his rallies to warm up the crowds and draw big numbers. He did the same thing in Europe. But all reporters do is snap pictures of the throngs and plaster them on the front page of newspapers. Old folks don’t like concerts. So McCain can’t get those kinds of pictures. Doubtful Tony Bennett can draw a crowd of 100,000 from their lounge chairs. But you better believe these oldsters will drag their a**es to the polls.]
I give CO, NM and even VA to Obama (even though I think McCain could take VA by a hair).
This race is going to come down to PA. I truly believe that. No landslide for either candidate. A nailbiter to the end, because I doubt PA will be called early.
For the media to call this race now and encourage Obama to start appointing cabinet members and Michelle to start measuring for drapes seems premature, irresponsible and disrespectful of the electoral system. You want to see a blowout? Reagan/Bush – Mondale/Ferraro in 1984. 525 EV to 13 EV. Now THAT’S a landslide. It’s appropriate to invite the interior decorator and break out the bubbly if you’re getting indications of those kinds of results.
But in a race that is still visibly this close with a multitude of states that are within the margin of error or toss-up, it just seems arrogant and un-democratic. Why even bother to have an election tomorrow if the outcome is pre-determined? Is this a preview of coming attractions under the Obama-Borg administration?
