I am in the same boat. I haven’t bought a home yet and am very much a little guy as well. Please do not interpet my post as being a bull because I for one don’t consider myself one, nor I don’t believe anywhere in that post or any others I said the market will up and run away. I have said and maintained we have seen bounces in many neighborhoods already. The high end is still crumbling and will continue to do so as well.
I still am pretty bearish but I used to hold out hope that things would act like the last decline but I gave that up a long time ago. I still think we have a ways to go of flatness, maybe a little up or down for another year or so depending on what and where you are looking. I think that there will still be this hand that throttles the inventory as well. I am not saying you will be priced out forever but I am not so confident of an instant HUGE drop to occur due to the shadow inventory overhang. My money still rides on the interest rates shaking the pricing tree down but I am not sure when and how much.
I do not believe it can go on forever either. That is not my premise as well. All I am trying to address is a guess at where the shadow inventory is going to go over the next say…. 5 years….
DW you make a good point, even if it gets to your hands indirectly via an investor and nudges pricing lower, that is still reducing prices. Absolutely agreed.
I will try to be more precise in the point I am trying to make.
