[quote=Diego Mamani][quote=ILoveRegulation]If the housing market is going to collapse if interest rates go up, what is going to cause inflation? Wasn’t the ‘problem’ in the 1970’s wage inflation? What is going to cause wage inflation today?[/quote]
ILR, I believe that wage inflation in the 1970s was not the cause of the sustained increase in all price indexes in the 1970s. Please read Milton Friedman’s writings on this. His “Free to Choose” (1980) is very accessible. The cause of high inflation in the 1970s was loose monetary policy.
Policy makers believed then that by allowing slightly higher inflation, they would be able to reduce the unemployment rate. Problem was, over time, wage earners, producers, etc., learned to anticipate the higher inflation and they, in turn increased their prices (wages being one of them).
Fed Chairman Paul Vocker killed the inflationary vicious circle, but at a very high cost: nominal interest rates shoot up into the double digits, and contributed to the 1982 recession (which at the time was the worse we had seen since the Great Depression).[/quote]
But, as others have also mentioned, the en masse entry of women in the workforce during the 70s, AND the Baby Boomers entering peak buying years at the same time, pushed inflation up as well.
If we see the unwinding of loose monetary policy of the past few decades (which should also reverse the growing wealth disparity of the past few decades), and the reversal/stagnation of the demographic changes that drove inflation in 1970s-2000s, it would be very deflationary. This is what the Fed is fighting against, IMHO.
