dfth,
Yes I am in the business but that doesnt give me a vested interest in hoping you are not correct. If prices were cheaper my job would be easier. I would love for prices to be lower and for my clients (whom I genereally consider friends) to be able to easily afford the homes they want/deserve. It would also create huge buying opportunities for me personally. Unlike many in the biz my livelihood does not depend upon real estate. I also pride myself in staying ahead of the herd, something you can relate to by your handle.
In genereal, I see housing bulls setting themselves up for disaster, while housing bears are paralyzed by fear and missing out on opportunites to create wealth in other ways. All the while, I continue dramatically improving my financial well being and future every month. It’s a shame my favorite poster (Docteur) was chased away several months ago. He inspired me to pursue opportunities I used to be too afraid to that are now bearing bountiful fruit for me. I guess my point is that I don’t really care what happens to RE as I will be in great shape either way. This allows me to watch and analyze whats happening with an objectivity and a front row seat few enjoy.
With that said, I just dont see the decline you are hoping for. In 1997, housing was definitely undervalued and a decent 3BR/2BA in good neghborhood was around $250,000. That was coming off the absolute bottom of prices in the prior cycle. Throw in roughly 4% inflation for the last 10 years and that raises prices up 50 to 60% from there. I just dont see prices for a decent 3/2 going below $350,000 to $400,000. In 1997, I used to eat at a local Italian joint and my favorite meal was $7.95. I still go there at least once a month and it’s now $13.95. Would I love to pay $7.95 again? Absolutely, but it aint gonna happen!
