I do not believe that any stock price bears any relation to any economic reality.
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Perhaps not right now. But they do, occasionally. Your job as an investor is to figure out – roughly – when and where the opportunities lie with the understanding that you’re going to be approximately wrong a lot.[/quote]
But isn’t that just hubris. Basically you are saying, be smarter than the marketplace, find the opportunity everyone else missed, in a marketplace that adjusts prices by the nanosecond, and which sets prices based on all possible knowable information, including everyone in the world, the smartest, most informed, best capitalized people. There is realistically no way to be smarter than them, is there?
auto investing in an index fund is far more humble and realistic, isnt it?