Darrell Young, I agree that cashing out in CA is a great idea, so I did just that. Once you cash out, you can either rent in CA as I did, or buy in a lower-priced city.
If you choose to leave CA and buy elsewhere, you have to be careful to not buy iknto another bubble. The question I would ask is, “What is the income/median home price ratio today, compared to its historical average?”
In SD, the average is 7, and we are at 14.
What is the average multiple in Amarillo, and what is it today? After all, wages are the fundamental that supports a true non-bubble housing pirce.
The second question is what percentage of sales and refis in the last 5 years are adjustable mortgages (I/O, option ARM, ARM) and stated income, so I get an idea of the future foreclosure rate.
In Omaha, NE, the income/home price multiple is the same as it’s always been, but the high use of ARMs are causing home prices to drop.
Third, how is the job market? Has main employment been in construction, real estate, lending, and MEW-related (retail, restaurant, travel, services)? Or is employment independent of the real estate market and MEW? Even Omaha NE had most new jobs in the last years in construction, and they are starting to lose jobs there. The construction and MEW dependence is not limited to CA. It is nationwide, and I wonder if Amarillo is somehow isolated in this regard.
So please answer these 3 questions, and then we will all know whether Amarillo is a good deal, or waiting to fall off a cliff.
