Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m probably more familiar with Mexico than you are – I’ve lived there and speak spanish fluently. In addition, I have Mexican business partners. But perhaps you’re Mexican?
Having said all that, you’re correct in that there’s always a risk of reappropriation at some point down the road. Property ownership in third world countries always presents certain political risks. (And Mexico isn’t “basically” a third world country – it is CLEARLY a third world country.) And personally I’d hope that the US military would NOT “swoop in” to protect anyone’s property rights. These are the risks that individuals and corporations should bear on their own.
However, it’s important to make a distinction between Baja and mainland Mexico. Baja’s major governments – Mexicali/Tijuana/Rosarito/Ensenada/Cabo, etc. – have always been more US-friendly than the mainland because of the relative importance of tourism, and thus gringos and the US dollar, to their economies. And Baja’s politics are somewhat removed from the mainland. Again, that’s not to say that something untoward couldn’t happen at some point in the future, but based on what my partners tell me, it’s highly unlikely, even if a leftist government won the general elections. But to a large extent this risk is already priced into Mexican properties – that’s one of the reasons they sell at a 70%+ discount to comparable properties in California.
Would I take an enormous risk on lots of Mexican property? Nope. But is buying a modest vacation property down there a big risk for the average person? Nah. After all, if you spend time worrying about the relatively small risk of leftists reappropriating your Mexican vacation home, I’d hate to imagine what other things keep you up at night. At that level you have to acknowledge that merely getting out of bed in the morning is a substantial risk.
