Chinese govt already provides oil at subsidized rates to its people. If Yuan appreciates, it will happen slowly and there will be no sudden jumps. Have you checked the per capita income of China and US? You don’t seem to understand why savings rates are so high in China. Chinese govt doesn’t promise to provide for its elderly and so people save for their retirement. Houses, Cars, etc are generally bought with huge lumpsum payments since the credit/finance system is not well developed. This is crucial in stoking domestic spending. There is also a change in mentality that will happen as 2 very different Chinese generations switch hands as head of houseold. So yeah the Chinese will start consuming more but they cannot immediately replace the US consumer. A US recession later this year or next year will definitely slow Chines growth and also slow oil demand worldwide and bring down oil prices. In the long term though, I guess everyone agrees that oil will be higher as US and European nations will have to make space for the more afluent lifestyle of Chinese consumer.
