cnn.com is full of retailer-woe stories. The slowdown is here. I was reminded that retailer ups and downs this time of year mean nothing. Most of their business, I think about 75% of it (???), is done between September and December, the Christmas selling season. This is the time that housing will really tank, and psychology will change. At that time, the lower MEW rate of January wlll have fed through, and new MEW will be harder to get as interest rates are higher and homes are no longer rising in value. So you’ll have a new psychology of worries about the wealth effect, less borrowing, and the retailers will have a very bad year.