I respect your analysis from a technical view and you are correct this is not a bear market yet. IMO the thing you have to factor into the market is the turmoil in the credit markets right now. The mortgage market debacle has spread to the corporate debt market which is now basically frozen. Banks have underwritten $200 Billion to $300 Billion of deals that they can’t get financed right now. The stock market has priced in this premium and now it’s a big question mark if these will be completed, plus there will be pressure on the market due to LBO’s drying up completely. Even if this is just a re-pricing of debt in lieu of a global market credit crunch the impact on the equity markets could be substantial. I don’t know, the markets have shaken these things off in the past, I just think the equation has changed looking at the second half of the year. I don’t think this will be remedied in two weeks.
