[1] I for one appreciate your summaries on these issues due to the fact that I do not have the depth of knowledge that you do in these areas, and do not pretend to be a paper champion like so many who read a few things then start challenging you.
[2] I have openly written in my blog that I do not believe we have seen the low in stocks based on my ongoing analysis of the COT report and what the big money has been doing. I also wrote in there for anybody who read it, that the rally in stocks would start March 13th or within a few days of that, I wrote this at the end of Feb and again at the very beginning of March.
[3] I do not like being in agreement with so many amateurs who think we are going way lower, but my analysis is what it is, 5500 appears to be a fair value for the Dow and a good place to start buying for long term hold purposes. Commercials are selling this rally which has historically led to selloffs and rallies failing.
[4] Cramer may have had his moments in the past but he has not been very good recently when I have come across his comments. He is just way too emotional to trade well.
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Regarding…
[1] Thanks. You’re in the minority. Hahaha…
[2] That was an excellent call. I’m not a trader, but I can appreciate when folks get something right in a realm that I don’t understand. I recall you made several good calls a couple of years back before stepping away from the table for a bit. While I don’t pretend to understand what you do, I appreciate the color. It’s interesting.
[3] I hear you on this one. And perhaps “the public” is buying this rally. But I know the professionals are generically skeptical. Almost all of the professionals I know think this is a suckers’ rally and think we’re headed lower. While most Piggs – well, except for perhaps Rich – clearly think we’re headed below the recent lows, I don’t really know what the typical retail investor is thinking. What I do know is that the contrary indicators were absolutely screaming at S&P 676: “Depression” on the cover of Newsweek, the dressing down of Cramer, Soros/Taleb/et al. saying this could be worse than the Great Depression. And then you have Fleckenstein shutting down his short hedge fund after 13 years and short-seller Doug Kass getting unabashedly bullish for the first time in over a decade. I know this is all anecdotal… but dems is a lot of anecdotes. But, frankly, if we merely go to S&P 600-ish (that’s Down 5500-ish) eventually before starting a new bull market, that would please me. Because it could obviously be worse than that – an outlier, but still a possibility.
[4] Look, I think Cramer’s a clown as well. All I’m saying is that every dog has his day. And most market dogs have their day after they’ve been wrong for so long that no one cares about their opinion any longer. I think that’s where Cramer is at this point. But I could be totally wrong.
One thing I’ve noticed during this rally – as opposed to the prior failed rallies of the last two years – is that investors have stepped up to buy some of the little, illiquid stuff. The stuff you can’t trade, that you have to commit to and own. It’s been over two years since I’ve seen that kind of activity. But… in the latter part of this rally, that has backed off a bit, which is why I’m skeptical of the entire rally. That is, the latter stages of this rally have mostly involved only the liquid stocks, the stuff you can trade, which makes me somewhat skeptical. If the small stuff you have to live with is moving up, it feels more real. It shows commitment. If just the big cap trading stuff is moving up… well, it just looks like a trade. One that will eventually sell off to some extent. But these are just observations. I ain’t no trader.
