People in here don’t want to learn, they just want to spread more negative energy to things they don’t understand. This is something I have learned the hard way, so I no longer try to help people who don’t want to learn, and just criticize anything that comes from someone with more knowledge in a particular subject than they have.
I for one appreciated your post, thanks for providing that analysis. I don’t claim to be an expert in everthing like so many in here do, so there was some good information for me in your post.[/quote]
Well, I want to learn too. And I’m willing to listen and alter my thinking. As I’ve said many times, I don’t have all the answers. Unfortunately, however, I’ve found John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation to be all too true: “When faced with the choice of changing one’s mind and proving there’s no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” If I turn out to be largely wrong in my current thinking, I’ll acknowledge it and move on. Wouldn’t be the first time and it won’t be the last. For example, I thought we’d see a peak-to-trough decline in housing prices here in SD of 35%-40% (that was before they started falling). Now it looks like it’ll be 45%-50%. I was too optimistic. Mistake made, mea culpa, acknowledge it, adjust accordingly, move on.
Hey, by the way, in as simple terms as you can put it, what’s your current thinking on the market? I recall that you got a bunch of market turn calls right in a row a couple of years back, but I haven’t seen anything recently. I’m in private equity (and I don’t trade in my personal account) so I don’t pay too close attention to the day-to-day machinations of the market, but I still follow things from afar. If you don’t mind sharing, in very general terms, what’s your outlook?
My gut (which is not to be trusted) is that we ultimately head down to S&P 600 or thereabouts at some point, although that may be after a big rally from here for all I know. S&P 600 gets us close to lows reached in prior crises in terms of Tobin’s Q. But, hell, I don’t know…
