qcomer – ironically I got long the S&P futures on this am’s down opening, but will exit on tomorrows opening. My entry was 1415.25 so it is about 8 points profit on a very short term trade. My short term trading system generates signals in both directions regardless of long term trends. The above comments were more geared towards a longer time horizon of about 6 months.
I have no short positions in any stocks right now. My stock money is 100% in cash in t-bills and has been for about 30 days. The seasonal tendencies tend to have periods where they shift. Generally, January has not been a time for drops, but this has changed in the last 7 yrs or so.
I am concerned about the bond market holding up to support a buy signal in 30 to 60 days. Also, the commercials are heavily short right now. I am hoping for a sharp decline which may not happen, accompanied by a rally in bonds and a shift by the commercials to the long side, before I plow heavily back in on the long side.
If this decline does happen, I will have to see how a few other internal things look at the time to see if it is still a buying opportunity, or the beginning of a larger drop. There are cycles due on both sides this year, so we should have some volatility in both directions.
I will state it out in the open forum here if and when I go in, and then we can watch my celebration or demise, LOL!
