Neither one of us really knows what will happen. I think you are more bearish than I am at the moment. This year we are following the seasonal pattern almost to a “T.” As a result, I will continue to weight that heavily. Keep in mind that I am a fairly short term trader. I rarely hold for more than 6 months with stocks, and much shorter than that in futures. I am expecting a substantial downward move in stocks before years end, which will hopefully set up another Oct/Nov buy. However, I am expecting it to begin from higher levels.
If we get a big blow off here like it appears we are, I may exit my longs ahead of the August time frame. Also, if bonds were to get really weak, that could also cause me to exit sooner. Third, a shift from long to short by the commercials, could also cause me to re-evaluate. Without any of those two things happening, I will ride this. My feeling is that you simply cannot afford to miss moves this powerful. I trade based on my trading systems, not my economic viewpoint.
What bad news, most companies are knocking it out of the park with earnings?
