Matt, sorry you do not like my format, it just comes up like that. I guess I could just delete it, but the full history of the name goes back to a debate I had in here with someone who did not like me. I pointed to a documented place where proof of an annual return of 60% was posted for me, and referred to it as Scoreboard, which is an old trash talking saying from my days as an athlete.
JG, negative sentiment is what I want for the rally to continue, bullish sentiment is a negative in my view. When you look at major peaks and troughs in stock prices you will often find the peaks occur when a sentiment is high and troughs when sentiment is low. There are a number of ways of measuring sentiment, but I like to focus on the small speculators, and the investment advisors, and do the opposite for the most part of what they do. This is somewhat contradictory in that I could be considered an advisor. However, I am talking about the collective whole of the community, not just one individual.
I have no idea if the rally will last until the end of the summer, that is just what my model is telling me. If I see the commercials jump off the long side, while bonds are still as weak as they are now, I will exit my longs instantly. So far, my system says to still be long, so I am. I do think you are going to get a healthy decline that could begin by summers end, as I have said many times before. It is unlikely that the model will be exactly on target, but I did state in here before the fact that a big rally was going to start in April to May, and that was based on the model, so it has been pretty good so far this year.
I hope my model is accurate, and gets me out before it happens. However, I will then view that as another buying opportunity for what it’s worth. If we all agreed on market direction, there would be no trades, so disagreement is imperative.
