If my memory serves me correctly, he moved out of Newport Beach around 2000 or thereabouts claiming RE prices were going to crash. He sold his home, and moved back east. He had offices on both coasts, and just went back to the one back east. I might be off by a year or so on the date. I also recall that he rented a place back east when he moved.
I am not 100% sure about this, so do not hang me with this. However, he was pretty outspoken at the time as I recall, which is why this story sticks with me. I had never heard of him at the time.
My home that I sold in 05 gained over 1 Million dollars during that time between when he left and my sale, which is now in my pocket. My point is, his timing on this specific topic was quite a bit off, so there is no reason to believe that just because he is still out there making the same comments, that they will be timely. Maybe he has been dead on about other things, I do not know, but on this topic, he has not been too accurate. We have a well known approx 10 yr cycle in RE so being off by 5 years is not very close.
It does appear that the downturn is happening, but in my business, missing by that much does not make for a good call. Most of his views it seems are generally bearish on our economy, so you have to take things he says within that context. Although I am bearish on RE I do not share the extreme views that many here do. However, do not mistake my comments for being bullish. I am not bullish on RE for the next few years, quite the opposite.
