I have had similar thoughts. I began to think that too many people were in the bubble camp, and as a result, the big drop would not occur. As a trader, I always want to be opposite of the consensus of the public. However, I do not believe that the majority of the public believes it will happen.
Only a few of my friends believe it. Fortunately, my good buddy the RE mogul is one who agrees. His opinion matters a great deal to me. I am shocked at the dramatic sales falloff that is occuring this month. 40% in one month is an unbelievable number. I did not think even in a major crash, we would see that type of dropoff.
It is almost as if, the big drop literally is just hitting right as we speak. The psychology of the whole situation, is what equates it to the stock markets. It is also why, the same thing is going to happen, even though it is a completely different type of asset.
There will be a time when everyone is convinced it can only go down, and that is the buy spot give or take 6 months to a year.
