Chris – I think this group is well ahead of the curve on local Real Estate, but fairly worthless when it comes to the bond/stock/commodities markets in which you are most adept so I can understand your comments.
I agree it is annoying when people bag on investors who are successful pulling off deals in a complicated market. Kudos to them, and thanks to SDR for pointing it out.
I’m with you on the “corrections always overcorrect” comments.
There is a bit of the herd mentality in the “prices can only go down” camp but I think for the most part we are ahead of the curve on local real estate … if a group can collectively be such.
I’d also like to see less “this can’t be happening” and “just wait until the shadow inventory hits the market” and more explanantion of why this market is looking healthier in such a bleak-looking economic environment.
I’d also like to say that someone who rents instead of buying a 500K house they can’t afford may not be smarter than a seasoned stock/bond trader, but at least they didn’t buy a 500K house they couldn’t afford, and at least they had the foresight to see that it may soon be a $350K house. I’d call that ahead of the game. Even more ahead of the game are people who could afford the 500K house in 2004 and rented anyway – and there are lots of those around here, too.
I guess we won’t know if we are ahead of the SD RE curve for another couple of years. For now I’ll take my RE cues from this group, and my non-RE investment cues from – well, anywhere else, frankly.
Personally, I see this Spring as the equivalent of a bear-market rally. It’s a little stronger than anyone expected and if you get in and out, there’s money to be made buying from those expecting the big crash and selling to those who think this is the bottom.
It’s a market where you have to move fast or get the hell out of the way of those who are moving fast.
