Chris, I think that you’re quite right. Life is like a river and your need to go with the flow. A good river-rafter learns to nagivate the obstacles to arrive at destination first.
As far are RE goes, friendly monetary policy is one thing. But we could also see an S&L type bailout. Personally, I think that FDIC and other types of government insurance should be limited to $100k total. More liquidity will just cause us to take on more risk knowing that we’ll be made whole.
The flow in RE is now downward. Going with the flow means waiting it out.
The problem with housing is that, lately, buyers have been looking at their houses as investments. However, they are unable to remove the emotions from it.
Personally, I think that psychology is the main driver of life. Rationale is only a small part.