Saying it will be dark is a fact, an event that has repeated with 100% regularity over a immense sample size. Predicting something that may or may not happen in the future is an opinion with a sample size of zero going on 1. Opinions including mine are far from facts. I cannot stress enought PW that you need to have some flexibility in your thinking.
I have no idea if you will be right or wrong about any of your strong predictions. I do know this, some of mine will be wrong, and I will adapt on the spot to the ones that are. Will you be able to?
I find it hard to believe that you would equate darkness of the night with an economic prediction from an economist. Also, where have I stated that I expect a 20% gain in the indices? I have no idea how much this rally will be once it starts, if it starts in the fall. My goal once I enter my trade will be to outperform the indices as a whole, which I have done every year since I have been trading stocks.
The last year as I stated the stocks I bought and held gained 19.2% from entry to exit as a whole. That included the small dividends that were paid on them during the hold period which was about 7 months. CAT, HPQ, HON, AA and HD were the 5 stocks that I bought, putting 20% of my money in the trade in each one.
That beat the indices for the year by a wide margin, which was my goal. It was certainly no home run by any means. I do expect this year for the trade to do better if it sets up properly in the fall.
