Former – I knew you were tongue in cheek, the comment was just targeted at this thread in general. It is so hard to predict what will happen, but I do think people get too carried away with negative thoughts at times. It is much easier to scare people for some reason that it is to prop them up with optimism.
PW – if that lag is true then the recession you are looking for is a long ways away if my stock model is correct. We should peak spring to summer of next year, so 9 months after that I guess by what you are saying takes us into 2008.
As I always say, I could be wrong, but I wonder if Roubini risks 7 figures on what he writes like I do? I bet he risks zero. I do find his writing compelling but like alot of the doom and gloomers, I think he carries out some things too far. How often are these doom and gloom predictions accurate? Ask Bob Prechter, or what about Bill Gross and his 5000 DOW call a few years back.
Maybe at the end of the day I just cannot live my life thinking the sky is about to fall on me. This may cloud my judgement in viewing these very negative economic forecasts.
