SD – good move, I think you will be pleased in a couple of months. The point I am making is the same one that I put in prior posts. When researching things, the worst thing an individual can do, is formulate an opinion, and then try and make the data fit it.
The data needs to formulate the opinion. This mistake is what is called over-optimizing. It is backwards logic to look at a strong cyclical tendency that has rarely failed and try and find the reasons why it will this time due to a pre-disposed opinion of what you think will happen.
As I said in my prior example, lumber has rallied starting on the 18th trading day of October for 18 straight years. Should I try and figure out why this year will be the one that fails? Or should I buy it on that day and play the odds?
I already know what I am going to do.
There are large picture fundamental reasons why this pattern has repeated over and over. That is all that I need because I am a systematic trader. I do not trade on my opinions, I would be broke if I did.
It is difficult to find a comfort zone if you over analyze things too much. There is always something else to look at that could be “the missing piece.” You just have to line up the probabilities on your side and take the trade.
