SD you are dead on about August and September, they are historically bad months to be long the market. I covered the difference in my last newsletter between buying now vs in the fall, and the difference is dramatic. Again, these are general trends that just serve as a beginning spot for setups.
Several things need to fall into place for the fall rally to begin. We need strong bonds, which we currently have. We need to commercials to be heavily long. We also want sentiment to be overly bearish. There are other things, but those are the beginning. Currently we are setup for a drop that I think will begin next week, but could happen any day. Seasonally, the market has weakness through the end of the month beginning on the 15th trading day of the month in August. This rally is diverging in a few ways that are meaningful, foretelling of a drop IMO.
As far as RE goes, the 2008 was based on the 18 year cycle from high to low. 1990 was the high, so that projects to 2008 for the low. Robert Campbell has a timing model that I have made some small changes to that I am going to use when this timeframe comes due to dial in a bit better. His model is terriffic for timing RE,it generated a sell signal in Aug of 2005 for San Diego. He does not discuss cycles at all, that is my work.
Also, I will study this deeply when we get closer to see if there is something else I can find. Things are beginning to look very ugly for RE here in OC, last months numbers were very weak.
