Poway, I would say that this trade is not for you to worry about. I probably should have never mentioned this as it has become a can of worms.
All of those discretionary things you mention are not part of the rules for this trade, so I have no idea what influence they would have. None of those things you mention are part of the setup for this trade. I showed you in the newsletter two months ago that lack of correlation between stock and oil prices. I am not sure how much more definitively it could be proved than what I presented.
There have been many stock rallies during periods of declining earnings historically. I am a rule based trader, if something is not part of the rules for a trade I do not care what it is saying. The rules are based on years and years of research, and finding repititive patterns in the markets. I trust in my research and tune out all the noise.
The 30 yr has already rallied a good amount, enough to support a stock rally. Let’s just forget about this and go back to bickering about RE. The OC numbers for July just came out and our incredibly ugly, the bulls are really going to struggle spinning these numbers. This fall is really going to be interesting in RE.
